As elections have already been announced in Bangladesh, India needs to be extra careful. We need to consider that, as of now, except Bhutan, India has no real friend in the neighbourhood, and everyone is playing the China card.

“India must reach out to the Awami League’s opposition to soften their anger. The ban on the party has orphaned its large, committed vote-bank and has blanked out the Centre-Left in Bangladeshi politics. Right now, the BNP, under its new leader, Tarique Rahman, former president Ziaur Rahman’s son, appears to be the best organised,” reads an article of Jawhar Sircar, a former Rajya Sabha MP, published on Indian Express on June 10.

But how India infuriated its last friend, Bangladesh, is a case study in insensitive handling. It is an open secret that India was completely outwitted by the US, supposedly an ally against China, after the regime change in Bangladesh last August. We now need to review our age-old approach to Bangladesh politics.

What bugs Bangladeshis the most is the Indian narrative, which remains completely unchanged over 55 years, irrespective of governments, that India liberated them, almost single-handedly, in 1971. This infuriates most Bangladeshis, who know how valiantly their local mukti joddhas fought Pakistan and treacherous razakars, sacrificing nearly 3 lakh lives.

A section of them says that India dismembered Pakistan in its own geopolitical interest, not for altruism. India earned the rancour of General Ziaur Rahman by magnifying the role of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who was far away, interned in Pakistan. It was Zia who declared Independence and the formation of the Provisional Government on March 27, 1971.

Along with General MAG Osmani, he led their determined band to fight a superior army inside East Pakistan till the Indian forces entered in December. Zia’s BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party), which ruled the country for several years, was no great friend of India, and India also reciprocated with equal hostility.

Indians, who are shocked at the desecration of Mujib’s statues and memories, were never told how corrupt his regime had become from 1973, and what led to his tragic assassination in 1975. Besides, it is naive of India to expect Bangladesh to be indebted forever. When battling American imperialism and brutality in the 1960s and 1970s, Vietnam received its maximum support from China. But today, it considers China its greatest enemy, while America is a lifeline trading partner.

When the whole world accused Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of rigging elections and flagged India’s support, we did not retract or alter our position. Our logic was that Hasina was secular and pro-India in a country where anti-Indianism is the staple diet of politics, and Islamist forces were trying to drag the country back towards Pakistan.

The rise of the Hindu right in India alarmed Bangladeshis, who didn’t take the Hasina government’s kowtowing to PM Modi and alleged one-sided deal with the Adanis lightly. Her sanctuary in India is only adding fuel to the fire.

Despite the disgruntlement against her regime, India went on to indulge Hasina as she tightened her authoritarianism. Most Indians hardly knew or discussed her increasing repression, the mysterious disappearances of dissenters, the internment of countless opposition supporters, brutal police firings and the special torture chambers that her government reportedly devised.

So volatile was the situation that during PM Modi’s last visit in March 2021, police shot dead 12 people as violent country-wide protests burst out. The indications were clear, but we chose not to hear. We do not seem to have taken up “track II” dialogues with other forces in Bangladesh.

The anarchy that followed the “July revolution” led to condemnable attacks on Hindus, who were close to Sheikh Hasina’s regime. However, many Muslim Awami League members also lost their lives. It is best not to get rattled by Muhammad Yunus’s anti-India statements.

His attempts to use China against India would rebound with the American “deep state” that foisted him. Each of his actions does not call for any instant reaction, as hurting Bangladesh economically would alienate the voters who will actually decide the fate of the country next April. Yunus’s posturing, however aggressive, represents turbulence from below, and also reveals his own lurking ambitions to be politically relevant after the elections as well.

It has Islamist sympathies, but is viewed as centrist and mature. It may now expand its reach to woo committed Awami League voters who fundamentally stand against the Islamic Right. Till now, anti-India Islamic parties could never sweep the polls — they lent support to others — not even when President Muhammad Ershad encouraged them.

Now, they are split between rival parties — Jamaat-e-Islami, Bangladesh Khelafat Majlis, Hefazat-e-Islam, Islami Oikya Jote, Tarikat and the Muslim League. Despite Yunus’s support, it is doubtful that the new Jatiyo Nagarik Party will be able to win without a formidable mass base. It is time for India to look beyond the Awami League. It is time to project a fresh, positive image to Bangladeshi voters and work on the best option.